A core shaver range declined 48% in one month across Australia’s largest retailers, with no clear explanation.
I started with the obvious explanations: product quality, pricing and distribution. All three were stable, which meant the decline was unlikely to be caused by the product itself, a price change or lost availability. The main visible change was the packaging, which had moved from transparent plastic to opaque cardboard, but I still needed evidence that this was affecting customer behaviour before recommending a response. With retailer range reviews approaching and shelf space at a premium, the business needed a diagnosis it could defend.
How I narrowed the cause
I used scan data to confirm that the decline extended across Australia’s largest retailers. That ruled out a problem confined to one customer or channel.
I then used consumer panel data to test whether previous buyers were still choosing the range. They were not repurchasing it and were switching to competitors, while other products were performing normally.
That pointed to a problem specific to the range, so I conducted shopper research with current buyers. The research showed that shoppers could no longer determine what was inside the new opaque pack as easily as they could with the transparent packaging it replaced.
What the evidence showed
The product, price and distribution were not the problem. The packaging had changed, but the change had not been communicated clearly enough for shoppers to understand what they were buying.
The recovery plan
I presented the retailer with the evidence and a recovery plan designed to protect the range while revised packaging was developed.
- Redesign the packaging so the product inside was clear, with revised packs expected to reach the market within a year.
- Improve the shelf layout by strengthening the visual hierarchy and placing the range at a higher eye level alongside similarly priced products.
- Remove promotions and discounts that were not addressing the underlying problem, then redirect the promotional program towards the recovery plan.
Results
Over the following year, the shaver range moved from a 48% decline to 18% growth, a 66-point swing in year-on-year performance. The business retained the full range and the same amount of shelf space.
The value came from giving each dataset a specific job. Scan data established the scale of the decline, panel data showed previous buyers switching, and shopper research explained why; together, they produced a recommendation that was specific enough to defend with the retailer and practical enough to act on.